TERRORISM AND TOURISM BUSINESSES IN THE NORTHEASTERN NIGERIA

TERRORISM AND TOURISM BUSINESSES IN THE NORTHEASTERN NIGERIA

Abstract: Tourism and terrorism are two words that are not supposed to go together, but due to changing times and order, terrorism has become a new normal world order. There is hardly any country that has not been affected by one form of terrorism act or the other. Nigeria has had her share in the form of Boko Haram insurgency which has been an ongoing battle for over a decade now. Because of the above, this study was carried out to measure the impacts terrorism, mainly by the Boko Haram group has on tourism businesses in northeastern Nigeria comprising Borno, Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba, Bauchi, and Yobe states. In other to measures conditions of things before and after, the study collected data spanning three distinctive periods: 1991-2000 –when the Boko Haram crisis was not in existence, 2001-2010 –when the Boko Haram crisis started but without wider media damage and casualties, and 2011-2018 –when the insurgency became known globally and recorded some of the heaviest casualties in the history of a terrorist operation. Secondary data was sourced from appropriate quarters. For example, data on Boko Haram attacks and the number of casualties were sourced from published materials and the State Department of Security Service (DSS) records of each of the states involved. Data on tourism businesses were sourced from each of the State Tourism Development Boards. While data on location (Geographical coordinates), of Boko Haram attacks, were sourced from Acled, a website that published big data on terrorism and crisis in general. Data on the location of tourism businesses (Geographical coordinates), were sourced from the field with the use of GPS. Descriptive and inferential analysis was performed on the data collected in SPSS software, where the three hypotheses for the study were also tested. The result and findings revealed that Boko Haram terrorist attacks were not random but rather, coordinated attacks with predetermined targets concentrated mainly in Borno state with a Nearest Niebourgh Z-score of -54.749367 and a P-value of 0.000000. The study also found a strong correlation between Boko Haram attacks and decline in tourism revenues and profits, hotel/motel room occupancy rate, and several tourism employees at .343 and .451, .091 and .846, 0.022 and .346 between the periods of 2011-2018 respectively but found no correlation between these variables between 1991-2009 at -.083 and -.745, -.007 and -.097, -.198 and -.432 respectively. Furthermore, the study did not found any association between the location of Boko Haram attacks and tourism businesses with a regression score of <-2.5 Std. revealing that tourism businesses were not primarily targeted by the group. The study, therefore, concluded that Boko Haram terrorist operation has impacted tourism businesses in North-East Nigeria negatively causing loss of jobs, revenues, and profits as well as a reduction in the number of visitors to the area. The study recommends adoption of tourism crisis management strategies proposed by the World Tourism Organization (1998) and modified by the researcher to suit the peculiar nature of the study area including intense media promotion of the areas and states not majorly affected by the crisis, rebuilding of areas and states recovered from the group, provisions of more resilient security apparatus and general development of social, educational and economic infrastructures to help revamp not only the tourism sector of the area but its general socioeconomic life wire.

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CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

Tourism and Hospitality have become one of the fastest-growing economic sectors in the world according to UNWTO (2005) but also one of the most sensitive to a crisis. Unexpected and uncalculated threats like terrorism acts are a major concern in this industry and can result in significant drops in tourist arrivals or negatively impacting on the general tourism industry of any destination (Araña& León, 2008).   Unarguable, terrorism acts have been on the rise in the last decade in Nigeria, largely due to the insurgency activities of Boko-Haram, Herdsmen, and farmers clashes.

Before the advent and upscale of terrorist activities mainly by Boko Haram,  Morgan (2015) argued that there were terror acts in Nigeria but of lesser consequence and gravity and includes acts like communal/tribal wars, sabotage, armed robbery, stealing, kidnapping, among others. The main purpose and intention of the perpetrators of these acts were to gained material benefits with minimal loss of life (Morgan, 2015).

Nigeria tourism & Hospitality sector contribute more than 7.5% to the country GDP and employed about 5.1% of total employment according to recent country performance evaluation report released by United Nation World Tourism Organization (UNWTO, 2017) making it one of the most important economic and development sectors for the country. However, the violent campaign by Boko Haram may have significant effects on the tourism subsector which could contribute to diminishing international tourists’ arrivals and reductions in FDI (Foreign direct investment) for the country. Nigeria has long endured travel advisories by other governments due to its high-risk security situation. One such was when in 2010, the US Department of State warned US citizens against traveling to Nigeria citing limited facilities for tourists, the existence of violent crimes carried out by ordinary citizens and gangs in military uniforms, kidnappings, and dangerous public transport (USDS, 2010). By 2011, the US Mission in Nigeria advised its citizens to keep off some of the biggest hotels in Abuja including Transcorp Hilton, Sheraton, and Nicon Luxury due to the imminent threat of Boko Haram attacks. Similarly, the UK government has a travel advisory on Nigeria as reported by Okey (2018) which could also have negative effects on the country tourism & hospitality industry.

It has been established by many researchers (Page & Connel, 2006; Sonmez & Graefe, 1998; Baker, 2014) that terrorism activities produced one of the most skewed relationships with tourism and can therefore be judged as tourism number one enemy. United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO, 2005) described tourism as the jewel of development for many developing worlds. Tourism is widely regarded as one of the largest and fastest-growing economic sectors in the world. Since the 1980s, tourism has been one of the leading growth sectors in the global economy.  According to UNWTO (2010) statistics, from1950 to 2010 international tourist arrivals grew from 25 million to 940 million. The sector has seen significant growth in revenue and employment as well as the development of new and fledgling markets. It contributes significantly to national GDPs and is a top employer in the economies of many nations. Tourism is a labor-intensive service which means it employs a lot of people in the developing world where jobs are still limited. It is also a security-sensitive activity which means that any hints of threat and danger to tourists can damage it (UNWTO, 2010).

Terrorism activity has been an ongoing issue mostly in the Northeastern region of Nigeria which caused extensive casualties and attracting negative national and international media. The huge media coverage given to terrorist attacks not only helps terrorists broadcast their message but also send signals to potential tourists of the risk inherent with their visit to certain places (Korstanje, 2018). The Northeast region of Nigeria has huge tourism potentials and endowment that could contribute immensely to the socio-economic wellbeing of the region (Nwakunor, 2016) but the escalation of terrorism activities in the region has affected the tourism sector in many ways. These effects can better be understood and appreciated through in-depth investigation & research which is why the current research effort becomes necessary.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Nigeria was once a very peaceful country before the advent of terrorism. Many foreign and domestic tourists once adored the country as their choice destination where they can travel and lodge freely without fear of attack (Kinyanjui, 2014). The northeastern part of the country was also once tourist heaven endowed with abundant natural and cultural attractions and visited by many tourists until the unfortunate incidents of terrorism creped in. The act of terrorism may not be a new phenomenon in Nigeria as observed by Phillips, Charles & Alan (2005). These authors opine that the country started witnessing terror acts since 1963 when the first civil war broke out, where millions of lives were intentionally destroyed by government forces and the separatist Biafran forces (Phillips, Charles & Alan, 2005). This was followed by many other heinous crimes but notable the Niger Delta militancy in the 1990s whose struggle for resource control to the taking up of arms that later resulted in the killing and kidnapping for ransom and sabotage of government properties. In the last decade, precisely from 2009, there has been an onslaught of terrorist activities particularly in the northeastern part of Nigeria made up of Borno, Jobe, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba, and Gombe state by mainly Boko Haram (Morgan, 2015).

Many research works ( Benashvili, 2016; Bird, 2008; Folarin & Adogheje, 2017; Adeboje, 2014) carried out on terrorism did not only failed to captured or analyzed the effects of terrorism on tourism in Nigeria in general but also failed to look at the effects terror activities had on the tourism subsector of the Northeast region of the country in particular bearing in mind the localization of terrorism activities by mainly Boko Haram group in and around this region since the current era of terrorism in Nigeria. It is interesting to note that many of these studies (Benashvili, 2016; Bird, 2008; Folarin & Ajogbeje, 2017; Adeboje, 2014) concentrated on the direct effects of terrorism which mostly looked at the physical damage to properties and number of casualties as a result of terror attacks. For example, Benashvili (2016) looked at the direct economic effect of Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria and found that the direct economic impact is considerably smaller than the size of the economy. Also, Bird (2008) found that the direct impact of the September 11 attacks on New York is around $33 billion (Bird, 2008).  Ajogbeje & Folarin (2017) looked at the effect of terrorism on the economy of Nigeria where they found a negative response of economic variables to terrorist incidents over the long haul. This study was not specific in the northeastern part of Nigeria and did not look at specific tourism variables but focused on foreign direct investment (FDI) on the nation’s economy generally. Another work by Adebayo (2014) looked at the implications of ‘Boko Haram’ Terrorism on National Development in Nigeria. The study maintained that the Boko   Haram activities have significantly affected the general business environment of the country and have scared investors away. Again, this study did not consider how terrorist activities affect tourism in particular. Other authors like Omede (2013) worked on terrorism and insecurity in Nigeria and found a direct link between terrorism and low FDI. Bosede  (2015) worked on terrorism in Northern Nigeria but concentrated on how terrorism is a threat to food security in Maiduguri.  Again, direct effects arising from terrorism measures things like loss of life, costs associated with injuries, damaged property and infrastructure, and other business and trade losses (Shah and Faiz, 2015). These effects occur shortly after the attack and are short term.

However, an indirect effect of terrorism on tourism takes time. In this sense, indirect effects occur in the long run as observed by Brück & Wickström (2004) and it is rather difficult to measure due to various reasons such as measurement, data collection, and estimation difficulties. Indirect effects are heavier and more severe than the direct effect (Brück and Wickström, 2004). Therefore, indirect effects are related to the tourism economy, fiscal and financial issues. In this respect, the indirect effects of terrorism focus on factors such as tourism growth, tourism financial markets, and investment, foreign direct investment (FDI) to the tourism sector, unemployment, and financial factors such as public expenditures and government borrowing costs. As has been said before, there is a total lack of research on the effect of terrorism on tourism in the northeastern region of Nigerian which therefore provides the gap for the current research.

1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study

This study aims to assess the effects of terrorism on tourism businesses in northeastern, Nigeria.

To achieve this aim, the following objectives will be pursued:

1. Analyze the pattern and distribution of terrorist-related attacks in the area from 2008 through 2018
2. Examine the characteristic (age of hotels, number of employees, types/class of hotels, the standard of hotels, etc) of tourism businesses in the study area
3. Ascertain the changes in occupancy rate, revenue, and employment profile of tourism businesses in the area within the study period
4. Examine the relationship between the intensity/density of attacks and characteristics of tourism businesses in the area
5. Examine the associations between the location of the tourism business and terrorist attacks

1.4 Research Questions

In the course of this study, an attempt shall be made to answer the following questions.

1. Is the distribution of terrorist attacks in the area statistically different from random?
2. What are the characteristics of tourism businesses in the area?
3. What are the trends in occupancy rate, revenue, and employment profile of tourism businesses in the area
4. Is there any statistically significant relationship between the characteristics of tourism businesses and the intensity/density of terrorist attacks in the area?
5. Is there any statistically significant association between the location of terrorist attacks and the location of tourism businesses?

1.5 Hypotheses

In the course of this study, the following hypotheses shall be tested;

1. There is a significant difference in the distribution of terrorist attacks in the area
2. There is a significant relationship between characteristic of tourism business and the intensity/density of terrorist attacks in the area
3. There is a significant association between the location of terrorist attacks and tourism businesses

1.6 Significance of the Study

Tourism is one of the alternative economic options available to developing country like Nigeria beside oil, but more than just being an alternative, tourism is also one of the most sustainable alternatives, since it seldom has much negative impact on the environment and required minimum capital to develop (UNWTO, 2015). It is therefore followed that the effect of terrorism on this development option (tourism) should be understood to appreciate it better in terms of the magnitude and therefore proffer management solutions. Nigeria as a country needs an objective understanding of how terrorism impacts her tourism industry which could be made possible from this study. The data could help in tourism security planning and counter-terrorism strategies to limit terrorism impact and boost tourism activities in these areas.

1.7 Justification of the Study

Tourism and terrorism are areas that have received massive attention in media and academia in the last few years. The international nature of the two warrants this attention due to their psychological underpinnings. International tourism has emerged an important aspect of tourism but so has international terrorism.

With this in mind, the involvement of multiple governments and non-state actors including terrorist groups and multinationals needs a closer evaluation. Most of the studies done on this topic have looked at the link between the two concepts in developed nations with a focus on massive terror attacks involving multitudes of victims and destruction of property. While this is surely important in understanding the phenomena, smaller terrorist attacks in developing nations of Africa like Nigeria needs equal if not more attention due to their sheer numbers and the vulnerability of these countries’ economies from terror attacks.

Furthermore, it has been established (UNWTO,2015) that Tourism plays a key role in many developing countries of Africa, with the services sector quickly outdoing the commodities market in these countries, the centrality of tourism both from an economic and cultural angle is clear. While this is so, African governments are yet to ensure that the local communities in tourist attraction sites share in the bounty accruing from tourism. It has therefore been the case that expensive tourist facilities are side by side with impoverished households of locals.

In Africa, economically and socially marginalized youths are likely to be lured into radicalism and extremism that breeds terrorism. It, therefore, behooves African governments to come up with comprehensive policies that not only market their tourist sites as safe and secure destinations to international tourists but also address the issue of fair sharing of revenue generated by tourism with the local community. Such monies instead of ending up in corrupt politician‘s pockets and wasteful government expenditure could best be utilized by developing infrastructure and entrepreneurial training of youths which encourages entrepreneurship that addresses unemployment.

This study will thus be useful to policymakers in governments in designing policies in the tourism sector that mitigate losses from terrorist attacks on tourist attraction sites and resulting harm to local stakeholders.

It will also be useful to private players in the tourism industry as it will offer in-depth insights into the link between terrorism and the various kinds of tourism.

International organizations and Non-Governmental Organizations involved in championing local community rights and sustainable models of tourism will also use the study to draft their plans of action.

1.8 Scope of the Study

This study assessed the impact of terrorism on the tourism/ hospitality industry focusing mostly on tourism businesses in the northeastern states of Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa, Gombe, Yobe, and Taraba.  Though the act of terror in the country may not be limited to this region it has been established that this region witnessed the highest number of terror attacks and incidences than any other geopolitical region of the country (Global Terrorism Index, 2017). The study identified major hospitality entities including Hotels, Motels, Restaurants, Parks, and resorts among others available in the study area. Also, terror attacks that have occurred in the area shall be reviewed including changes in tourists’ arrivals and Hotel and Motel occupancy rates. Impact on revenues and profits of these tourism businesses as well as the impact on employment and then analyzed the inter-relationship between terrorism and tourism variables.  To measure what happened before and after, the study collected data 10 years before the Boko Haram crisis (1991-2000), 10 years when the Boko Haram crisis started but was not a major issue (2001-2010), and 8 years when the Boko Haram crisis escalated to a very damaging crisis.  The study also looked at the association of these attacks and tourism businesses in terms of location.